Morena, efecto de spolier y cálculos estratégicos

En un post anterior abordé el efecto de spoiler que MORENA podría ocasionar a la izquierda en las recientes elecciones para la Cámara de Diputados. (Próximamente publicaré una entrada en la que calculo el número de curules que la coalición gobernante ganó en la pasada elección como consecuencia de la fragmentación de la izquierda).

La teoría de la coordinación estratégica sugiere que cuando dos candidatos de izquierda tienen más posibilidades de derrotar a su adversario si presentan una candidatura única, entonces tenderán a coordinarse estratégicamente. Desde luego, existen situaciones en las que dicha coordinación no ocurre. A propósito del ejemplo de dos candidatos de izquierda, Gary Cox explica una de esas situaciones que podría describir atinadamente los problemas de coordinación en la pasada elección:

it is important that both Left candidates care mostly about the outcome of the current election. If these two candidates represent competing factions within the Left party, both vying for long-term dominance of the party, then each may view the coordination game not as a one-shot affair but as a repeated interaction. Optimal strategies in repeated coordination games, however, typically entail being “tough” in the early rounds. By sending forth a candidate to do battle, even though this will lead to a bad result in the current election (a Right victory), each faction demonstrates its patience and commitment. If the other faction backs down eventually, the victor will be left in possession of the spoils for an extended period (assuming that incumbents are easily renominated). This sort of early posturing might be especially likely in highly uncertain conditions, such as those in many new democracies […]

One can put different players into the game sketched above and generate coordination problems with a family resemblance. Instead of two contenders for the Left nomination, for example suppose there are two leftist parties. […] Now suppose there are not two parties but an established Left party and a group that might or might not form a new party on the left.

 

Leave a Reply